Critical Report: Oil Price Overcharge Analysis

Rep. Antonio Tinio

ACT Teachers Partylist

The Department of Energy (DOE) failed to release Oil Monitor reports for the two weeks immediately preceding the March 10 price shock (Feb 24 and Mar 3, 2026). This data blackout occurred exactly as the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began (Feb 28).

This tool provides a comparative analysis of domestic Diesel, Gasoline, and Kerosene price adjustments versus world benchmarks (MOPS) and foreign exchange rates.

← Read the Full Critical Report

How to read the charts:

Chart 1: Raw Correlation

A direct plot of DOE’s own data points. The Blue Area represents the world benchmark change ($/bbl), while the Red Line shows the domestic price adjustment (P/L). Note how the red line tends to “track” world spikes with high precision but “lags” or stays elevated during world price dips.

Chart 2: Pricing Gap (Overcharge Analysis)

This chart uses a mathematical conversion (USD/bbl + Forex → PHP/L) to derive what a “fair” adjustment should be. The Red Bars represent the Pricing Gap — the extra margin kept by oil companies beyond the cost increase of their global benchmarks.

diesel Price Adjustment Analysis

Monitoring Period: Oct 2025 - Mar 2026

1. Raw Correlation: World ($/bbl) vs Domestic (P/L)

Direct Correlation: The Blue Area represents the world benchmark change ($/bbl), while the Red Line shows the domestic price adjustment (P/L).

2. Pricing Gap (Overcharge Analysis)

Gap Analysis: The Red Bars represent the Pricing Gap — the extra margin kept by oil companies beyond the cost increase of their global benchmarks.

gasoline Price Adjustment Analysis

Monitoring Period: Oct 2025 - Mar 2026

1. Raw Correlation: World ($/bbl) vs Domestic (P/L)

Direct Correlation: The Blue Area represents the world benchmark change ($/bbl), while the Red Line shows the domestic price adjustment (P/L).

2. Pricing Gap (Overcharge Analysis)

Gap Analysis: The Red Bars represent the Pricing Gap — the extra margin kept by oil companies beyond the cost increase of their global benchmarks.

kerosene Price Adjustment Analysis

Monitoring Period: Oct 2025 - Mar 2026

1. Raw Correlation: World ($/bbl) vs Domestic (P/L)

Direct Correlation: The Blue Area represents the world benchmark change ($/bbl), while the Red Line shows the domestic price adjustment (P/L).

2. Pricing Gap (Overcharge Analysis)

Gap Analysis: The Red Bars represent the Pricing Gap — the extra margin kept by oil companies beyond the cost increase of their global benchmarks.